Catalyzing Entrepreneurial Transformation: Adult Education's Strategic Role in Kyrgyzstan's Innovation Ecosystem

Xin Cui; Li Liu; Kalybek Abdykadyrov

doi:10.63944/xtee.JIE

Catalyzing Entrepreneurial Transformation: Adult Education's Strategic Role in Kyrgyzstan's Innovation Ecosystem

Xin Cui (作者)

Institute of Economics and Management, Kyrgyz State University named after I., Kyrgyzstan

Li Liu (通讯作者)

Institute of Economics and Management, Kyrgyz State University named after I., Kyrgyzstan

Kalybek Abdykadyrov (作者)

Institute of Economics and Management, Kyrgyz State University named after I., Kyrgyzstan

DOI：https://doi.org/10.63944/xtee.JIE

关键词：

Entrepreneurship Development, Innovation Ecosystem, Adult Education, Skill Upgrading, Difference-in-Differences, Human Capital, Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan

已出版

2025-12-31

摘要: This study provides a causal investigation into how Adult Higher Education (AHE) stimulates innovation capabilities and facilitates entrepreneurial pathways within Kyrgyzstan's evolving economic landscape. By compiling a unique panel dataset spanning 2010–2023 that integrates Labor Force Survey data, Ministry of Education records, and Social Security Fund information, we leverage three significant education policy reforms as quasi-natural experiments. Applying the multi-period difference-in-differences (MP-DID) framework developed by Callaway and Sant'Anna (2021), we quantify AHE enrollment effects on critical developmental metrics: income potential, occupational stability, and transitions into innovation-intensive sectors. Our results demonstrate a substantial but gradually emerging impact: statistically significant benefits materialize by the third year following enrollment. By the fifth year, AHE participants achieve a 12.3% wage premium (95% CI: [9.1, 15.6])—establishing crucial entrepreneurial capital—alongside an 8.7% reduction in employment volatility and a 6.1% increased probability of entering innovation-conducive industries. Treatment effect heterogeneity reveals strongest impacts among younger cohorts, service sector workers, and urban residents, indicating targeted opportunities for ecosystem enhancement. Mechanism analysis demonstrates that human capital accumulation (measured through standardized skill assessments) explains 43% of observed gains, while credential signaling (evaluated via resume audit experiments) accounts for 21%. Economic evaluation confirms AHE's viability, showing a 14.2% private internal rate of return that exceeds conventional higher education benchmarks (12.1%), validating its strategic position as a high-leverage investment for entrepreneurial ecosystem development. This study offers robust, causally-identified evidence that repositions adult education as a strategic catalyst for building innovation capacity and entrepreneurial dynamism in transitional economies.

参考文献

[1] ABDRAEVA A, ISAKOV B, BEKBOLOTOV A. Educational transformation in post-Soviet Kyrgyzstan: Institutional legacies and market adaptation[J]. Central Asian Journal of Education, 2021, 15(3): 45–62.
[2] ABDULLAEVA M. Labour market signalling in transitional economies: Evidence from Central Asia[J]. Journal of Development Economics, 2023, 164: 103145.
[3] AUTIO E, NAMBISAN S, THOMAS L D, et al. Digital affordances, spatial affordances, and the genesis of entrepreneurial ecosystems[J]. Strategic Entrepreneurship Journal, 2018, 12(1): 72–95. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/sej.1266
[4] BAKER A C, LARCKER D F, WANG C C. How much should we trust staggered difference-in-differences estimates?[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 2022, 144(2): 370–395. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2022.01.004
[5] BECKER G S. Human capital: A theoretical and empirical analysis, with special reference to education[M]. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1964.
[6] CALLAWAY B, SANT'ANNA P H C. Difference-in-differences with multiple time periods[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 2021, 225(2): 200–230. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.12.001
[7] DE CHAISEMARTIN C, D'HAULTFŒUILLE X. Two-way fixed effects estimators with heterogeneous treatment effects[J]. American Economic Review, 2020, 110(9): 2964–2996. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20181169
[8] ISAKOV B. Regional disparities in educational returns: Evidence from post-Soviet Central Asia[J]. Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, 2022, 30(3): 645–672.
[9] KYRGYZ STATISTICAL COMMITTEE. Labour force survey analytical report 2022[R]. Bishkek: National Statistical Committee, 2023.
[10] LACKÉUS M. Entrepreneurship in education: What, why, when, how[R]. Paris: OECD Publishing, 2015.
[11] LANGE F. The speed of employer learning and statistical discrimination[J]. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 2020, 12(1): 315–343. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2020.1830939
[12] ROTH J, SANT'ANNA P H C, BILINSKI A, et al. What's trending in difference-in-differences? A synthesis of the recent econometrics literature[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 2023, 235(2): 2218–2244. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.03.008
[13] SPENCE M. Job market signalling[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1973, 87(3): 355–374. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1882010
[14] TOKTOGULOV M. Higher education reforms in Kyrgyzstan: Institutional persistence and market adaptation[J]. Post-Soviet Affairs, 2022, 38(4): 287–305.
[15] ZHUNIO M C, VISWESWARAN S, OATES G R. Causal mediation analysis in observational studies: A systematic review[J]. Statistical Methods in Medical Research, 2022, 31(8): 1537–1554.

Catalyzing Entrepreneurial Transformation: Adult Education's Strategic Role in Kyrgyzstan's Innovation Ecosystem

如何引用